Interpreting State of India’s Birds Results

A number of results are available at the country, mask and state levels. These include, for certain species within each region, estimates of Long-term Trend, Current Annual Change, and Range size, each with measures of uncertainty (link to ‘main’ file). These terms are explained below.

Long-term Trend: This is the change in the index of abundance (frequency of reporting) in 2022/23 relative to “before 2000”. A value of -15% indicates that there has been a 15% decline in frequency of reporting over that time period.

Current Annual Change: This is the average annual change in frequency of reporting from 2015/16 to 2022/23. A value of -3% indicates that there is an average annual decline of 3% in frequency of reporting over this 7yr time period.

Distribution Range Size: This is the estimated area within India that the species occupies. It is based on actual reporting locations, supplemented by an estimate of the area over which the species might occur, even though it has not yet been reported yet.

CI: This refers to the 95% Confidence Interval, which is a measure of the uncertainty in any estimate. All estimates shown here should be interpreted taking into account their uncertainty. For example, if the estimate of Distribution Range Size is 200,000 km and its CI is 5,000 km then the best guess is that true Range Size is somewhere between 195,000 km and 205,000 km. Similarly, if the estimate of the Long-term Trend is -15% and its CI is 5% then the best guess is that the actual Long-term Trend is somewhere between -20% and -10%.

Within each region, species are also separately categorized based on each metric, and given an overall Priority Status (see p102 in the report). The website also has trend graphs available for each species with an estimated trend, both at the national level and at any applicable regional level. Finally, range maps are available for each species at the national and state levels (see more about trends and range sizes, and refer to the report (link)). 

In the report (see p20), key species for each state are listed.

Yes, these results can be downloaded from the website. A compilation of important results (those listed in the previous section) can be downloaded [coming soon]. Additionally, every species has a page on the website from where any relevant trend graphs and range maps can be downloaded.

Raw trend and occupancy estimates from the statistical models are also available for download, but not yet from this website. Please write to us if you require this information.

Yes, they are different.

IUCN threat status, popularly known as the Red List, is a global assessment of the extinction risk of every species. For birds, this is updated and maintained annually by BirdLife International. They follow a set of five criteria that is common across all forms of life. Unlike India, some countries also have a national level Red List—the extinction risk of a species within the political boundaries of a nation. IUCN recommends using both global and national Red Lists to arrive at conservation priorities for the birds in a country.

SoIB is an independent assessment of the birds based on criteria different to those used by IUCN. SoIB Priority Status for a species is based on its abundance trends and distribution range size. In some cases where abundance trend data was unavailable, the global threat status from IUCN was also used to inform the SoIB conservation priority. Regional assessments like SoIB also help inform the IUCN global threat status.

No, except in perhaps a few cases. Direct comparisons of the results of SoIB 2020 and 2023 are difficult due to differences in data and methods (see next section and p18 in the report). A deeper investigation is required to deduce cases of genuine on-ground change in status.